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Saturday, October 10, 2026
OpenlyVoice

‘A Strategic Error’: How the Reform Political Machine Failed in a Welsh Special Election.

Yuliia Bond manages dual employment, raises two children, and pursues studies at university. This past fall, she also found time to take on Reform UK when it sought to secure the Caerphilly constituency byelection.

Bond, a refugee from Ukraine who has settled in south Wales, said she was unable to stay quiet as Reform tried to win the seat in the Senedd, the Welsh parliament.

“Members of our Ukrainian community raised their voices,” Bond remarked. “We challenged the misinformation because we wanted to prevent our neighbours from being misled into resenting us. I didn’t want people becoming hostile to us because of falsehoods. So I voiced my concerns and others followed suit.

“Reform UK tried to generate fear and division with strategies used not only in the UK, but by right-wing political parties across Europe and across the world. The rhetoric they used in Caerphilly didn’t feel local. They felt imported – as if someone replicated a script from another country and dropped it through our doors.”

A Confident Campaign Meets Community Resistance

The party, led by Nigel Farage, was confident it could win the byelection, especially as Labour, the historically strong party in Wales for a century, appears to be in freefall. An energetic campaign by the Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru – and individuals such as Bond – kept out the rightwing party.

“Their biggest mistake was presuming that people here have little independent thought,” Bond argued. “They thought nobody would verify the facts. They believed that refugees are not just vulnerable, but somehow uninformed. That is not true. We may have escaped a war, but we are not naive. We comprehend policies.”

One of Reform’s key claims was that the Welsh government’s nation of sanctuary scheme showed both it and Plaid supported a “mass immigration agenda” and that “those seeking asylum” were receiving “special privileges”. This assertion did not hold water – over 80% of the nation of sanctuary funds had been spent on supporting Ukrainian refugees.

Bond noted: “When I read the leaflets, all I could see was a blatant attempt to divide people, to blame a small group, and stoke hostility in a place that had been welcoming to us.

“It failed in Caerphilly because the Ukrainian community and refugees from different backgrounds are not strangers. We are part of the community. People are familiar with us.

“They see us at school gates, in shops, at work, giving our time. They know what we contribute. The portrayal in the leaflet simply didn’t match reality. Most residents could feel that something wasn’t right. It felt like manipulation, not truth.”

The Result and Enduring Lessons

Bond spoke in the “gratitude orchard” in Caerphilly, planted by members of the Ukrainian community as a thank-you for the kind reception they have received.

She said the arrival of Reform had placed a burden on Ukrainian people in the area. “Vulnerable people should not have to bear this weight. Yet, during the election, we had to raise our voices first. Only later did support come – from local residents, politicians from different parties, and local media.”

There are full Senedd elections in May when Reform has hopes of the leading party in Wales.

Bond said people opposing Reform in Wales in May and in other elections across the UK must challenge the party’s messages quickly and with conviction.

“As a Ukrainian, I know how dangerous disinformation can be. The war in Ukraine did not start with weapons. It started with disinformation, propaganda and lies that paved the way for violence.
“Disinformation must be countered early, forcefully and clearly, because hate spreads faster than facts. The two months of that byelection were truly exhausting. We just had to survive it. But we endured together, and that is why the hate campaign was unsuccessful in Caerphilly.”

The Winning Campaign’s Viewpoint

For Lindsay Whittle, the victorious Plaid candidate, the period following the byelection was a blur. Attention from the public was widespread.

Whittle said both Reform campaigners and their opponents had believed the party might win decisively. He said: “The thought was that they’d spend obscene amounts of money and defeat us.”

So how did they stop the juggernaut? One reason, Whittle thinks, is that Plaid ran an upbeat, positive campaign. “Avoid attacking anyone personally because people dislike that. Keep the message constructive. Try and bring together people.

“People in Caerphilly have friends of various nationalities and they don’t like people targeting their friends. Voters recognise that without certain people coming to this country, you’re not going to have an NHS or social care. I think Reform underestimated the people of Caerphilly.”

While Whittle featured on the front pages, an intense local campaign was taking place in the background. Dedicated party members canvassed at thousands of doors.

“We think it was the crucial byelection we’ve ever contested,” one campaigner said. The victory was attributed to strong policies – and people who believe in them passionately.

Community Observations and Academic Analysis

A local editor was surprised at how polarising the campaign was. “We had communities clashing with each other, campaign posters torn down, really sharp debates online. I grew up in this area and I know everyone’s kind so to see that side come out was a shock.”

The turning point is believed to have been a televised debate when an audience member confronted the Reform candidate, stating that people with family members not born in the UK did not feel welcome since Reform had arrived.

“That was someone from our community who had a mixed race family explicitly stating the impact all this rhetoric had,” the editor said. “Caerphilly may not be the most multicultural of places but we’ve always been open to people from overseas. That was the turning point.”

A politics lecturer and native of the area provided a particular perspective on the byelection.

He said Plaid was extremely successful in presenting the election as a straight contest between two parties – but this will be more difficult at the Senedd elections in May when a new representational system comes in.

“It tended to be somewhat ill-informed or, at times, patronising. But Caerphilly is not a post-industrial wasteland uncritically accepting whatever political winds blow from across the border – it has its own political traditions and, like Wales more broadly, it has its own dynamics and can’t simply be interpreted through the perspective of what is happening in England. It was gratifying to see my home town defy those lazy assumptions.”
About the author

Larry Brown DDS

Elara is a digital storyteller and community advocate who explores human experiences through writing and multimedia projects.

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