A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
