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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It frequently acts as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

However this year's race is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending together. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still