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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.