Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
