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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd