War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a sham, with major political parties banned, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "the path to democracy".